Netanyahu’s Victory Claims Debunked: Failure to Achieve Objectives and Ongoing Threats
As we approach the fifteenth month of the ongoing conflict, which began on 7 October 2023, the outcomes are evident and require no extensive analysis. The so-called successes attributed to Israel—such as diminishing Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon, targeting its leader Hassan Nasrallah, weakening Hamas, nearly eliminating its leadership in Gaza and beyond, striking Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, and displacing Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria—have yet to fulfill Israel’s declared objectives. These objectives primarily include recovering hostages in Gaza and ensuring the safe return of residents from northern and southern villages to their homes. This situation alone signifies a significant failure in ensuring the safety of Israeli citizens. Furthermore, the continued barrage of rockets from Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen towards Israeli cities poses a threat that could undermine the claims of success made by Tel Aviv on the ground.
In southern Lebanon, the situation remains unclear, contrary to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims that his forces have successfully secured the northern villages. As Israeli violations along the Lebanese border continue, with forces demolishing villages and clearing land, concerns persist that Israel may delay its withdrawal from the south beyond 27 January, when the 60-day deadline concludes, thereby increasing the likelihood of escalation on the southern front. Moreover, information about Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the area south of the Litani River and the dismantling of its infrastructure and military assets, as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement, remains ambiguous. Israeli violations are ongoing, including the destruction of villages, towns, homes, and vital facilities, with some operations extending beyond the Litani River, justified as targeting Hezbollah’s military movements or arms smuggling activities.
While Hezbollah did violate the agreement on one occasion, it is unlikely the group will commit another violation by launching operations against Israel during the current 60-day period. The party will adopt a defensive posture rather than an offensive one, aligning with its strategy of maintaining the image of “resistance action” rather than “offensive action,” consistent with its involvement in the conflict that began on 8 October.
In Gaza, the situation remains dire. As of this writing, Hamas militants continue to launch rockets towards Israeli cities, highlighting that the ongoing conflict, now in its 15th month, has not provided security for the residents of the settlements. This continues despite the unprecedented destruction in the region. The mere arrival of a single rocket from Gaza serves as a reminder of the shortcomings of Netanyahu’s policy, which relies solely on excessive force.
The Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv, closely associated with the military establishment, reported that most claims about the destruction of Hamas tunnels in Gaza are “false.” The publication states that Hamas is present in nearly all the tunnels, contrary to the military’s assertion that 50% have been destroyed. The group is living in tunnels equipped with air conditioning, fuel, and all necessary supplies, stockpiling food for one to two years. Furthermore, it reported that the Israel Defense Forces are unable to maintain control over the territory for extended periods due to reductions in their operations. The report also highlighted Netanyahu’s vulnerability, noting that he has become captive to extremist ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir, who hold the finance and internal affairs portfolios, respectively. The newspaper warned that continuing the current combat strategy could lead to catastrophic outcomes and collapses within the defense establishment if the war persists without political solutions.
Netanyahu is indeed in a predicament and not at the peak of his victories as some may believe. Since the outbreak of hostilities, Israeli reports confirm that Netanyahu ignored warnings about an impending attack Hamas planned on the border settlements. He has repeatedly lied about being taken by surprise by the assault. Moreover, during the conflict, he continued his pattern of deception by inciting some of his advisors to threaten military and intelligence personnel against disclosing information and details about operations in Gaza, leading to the deaths of numerous hostages. As a result, the Israeli military’s chief, Herzi Halevi, has lost faith in the senior leadership and would have resigned had it not been for Netanyahu, who views him as a trusted ally.
Netanyahu’s predicament, with his need to testify in court, has escalated to an exceedingly embarrassing level. His claims of illness and the need for sensitive surgery seem to be tactics to evade accountability. A consultant for Knesset member Nima Al-Azimi remarked on social media platform X, saying: “The man has reached a point where he would go to the extent of castration to avoid giving his testimony.” This comment follows the revelation that Netanyahu had to undergo a prostatectomy and requested a postponement of his court appearance. He is expected to remain hospitalized for several days after surgery. While Israel may have effectively eliminated symbols of Palestinian, Lebanese, and Iranian influence, it still requires a sense of security and stability. This cannot be achieved solely through military means, such as artillery and missiles; instead, it necessitates diplomacy and peace agreements. There is an urgent need for a strategic shift that genuinely embraces the concepts of peace and stability if the nation seeks safety before security.
Dr. Hatem Sadek – Professor at Helwan University
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